France's economic outlook for 2026: how heavy is the debt burden?
France heads into 2026 with modest growth but a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, after credit agency KBRA downgraded its sovereign rating to AA- citing persistently high deficits and a deteriorating debt trajectory.
France enters 2026 with only modest growth and a worsening debt position: credit agency KBRA downgraded its sovereign rating to AA-, citing a fragmented political environment that is hampering fiscal consolidation. The IMF projects France’s debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from about 116% in 2025 to nearly 130% by 2030, running counter to the eurozone’s broader consolidation trend. Interest payments on French sovereign debt are projected to reach €59.3 billion in 2026, up sharply from €36.2 billion in 2020 — though deep market liquidity and France’s core eurozone position still support its access to credit.